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An example provided by Irwin at Dartmouth College points to one plausible explanation — and it has to do with the steeper cost of imported goods.
“A number of studies have shown, on net, we lost jobs from the (2018) steel tariffs rather than gained jobs because there are more people employed in the downstream user industries than in the steel industry itself,” he said.
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A study by the Federal Reserve Board found that a rise in input costs resulting from US tariff hikes in 2018-19 led to job losses in American manufacturing. The damage from those higher expenses was compounded by retaliatory taxes on US exports, more than offsetting a small boost to manufacturing employment from US tariffs — at least so far, the 2024 paper said.
Retaliation by other countries is indeed another danger of pulling the tariff lever. Higher tariffs on American exports would typically raise their prices for foreign consumers, hitting demand for the goods in many cases.
When Trump announced new tariffs this year, America’s major trading partners were quick to strike back with their own levies, although the US then agreed a temporary truce with China and the European Union.
Costs of free trade
While economists generally agree that free trade has benefited the global economy in recent decades, they acknowledge that it comes with certain costs.
One is the loss of jobs in communities that are particularly exposed to new competition from foreign manufacturers.
That is similar to the impact of technological progress on workers. “Manufacturing jobs as a share of the labor force have come down everywhere. It isn’t a US-specific story,” said Gimber at JPMorgan Asset Management, pointing to automation.
He drew a parallel between helping workers affected by higher imports and what is known as a just transition — the idea that the drastic changes needed to move toward a greener economy should be fair to everyone and minimize harm to workers and communities.
In both cases, providing workers in impacted industries with new skills or retraining them could be key, Gimber said.
Another potential cost of free trade is dependency on far-flung manufacturers. That took on new relevance during the pandemic, which snarled global supply chains, contributing to shortages of products such as face masks and respirators in the US and elsewhere.
However, economists do not typically see tariffs as a good way to build up domestic manufacturing, Fatas at INSEAD said, noting that subsidies for specific industries are viewed as a better tool “because they work more directly.”
But perhaps the strongest argument in favor of free trade is its importance to maintaining peace between nations.
As Gimber’s colleague David Kelly noted in March, closer trade relations give countries more to lose in any conflict.
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29.07.2025 10:19
‘The most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen’: Resurgent Rory McIlroy left incredulous after bizarrely hitting two balls at once
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As the latest inductee into one of sport’s most exclusive clubs, there is little that grand slam champion Rory McIlroy has not seen in the game of golf. Then, just past the halfway mark of his Open Championship third round on Saturday, he swung.
Enjoying an excellent day in front of a vociferous home support at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, the 36-year-old found himself in a spot of bother when his tee shot at the par-four 11th curved into the rough on the right of the fairway.
The “Oh my God” that followed the subsequent swipe of his wedge was McIlroy’s response to his effort falling short of the green, but the world No. 2’s attention quickly turned to the ball, somehow, at his feet.
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Miraculously, his swing had inadvertently popped up a second ball submerged below his played one in the Dunluce Links soil.
“Oh my goodness … That’s got to be a first hasn’t it?” exclaimed three-time Open winner Nick Faldo on the Sky Sports Golf broadcast.
“He was very fortunate to miss the ferns and the wild rose bushes but then he lands on an old golf ball … what a story.”
McIlroy evidently saw the funny side, holding aloft the hidden treasure with an incredulous smile even as he watched his actual shot trickle away from the green before tossing it into a nearby bush.
After the round, McIlroy said he “honestly” didn’t know what happened on the 11th.
“That is the most weird, ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen. Then my ball came out really weird and spinny. Yeah, just so strange.”
‘One of the largest roars I’ve ever heard on a golf course’
Though a first bogey of the round followed, the five-time major winner immediately responded in stunning fashion to reignite a day he had begun with three birdies in four holes.
Just over 56 feet away from the par-five 12th cup, he knocked a perfectly weighted putt that rolled for more than 10 seconds before dropping in for eagle and sparking rapturous scenes in the stands behind him.
“It’s one of the largest roars I’ve ever heard on a golf course,” he remarked later.
It was the undoubted personal highlight of a day that saw McIlroy, born some 60 miles away in the small town of Holywood, keep his dream of a fairytale home Open win alive, as a five-under 66 lifted him to eight-under par overall.
That left him six strokes adrift of leader Scottie Scheffler: one shot closer than at the start of Saturday but still surely requiring an even greater performance if he is to lift his second Claret Jug.
“He’s playing like Scottie. I don’t think it’s a surprise … He’s just so solid, he doesn’t make mistakes,” McIlroy said.
“He’s turned himself into a really consistent putter as well. So there doesn’t seem to be any weakness there. Whenever you’re trying to chase down a guy like that, it’s hard to do.”
Whatever the outcome, McIlroy has banished the demons of a tearful missed cut when the major returned to Royal Portrush for the first time in 68 years in 2019.
The 29-time PGA Tour winner has enjoyed phenomenal support all week on the Causeway Coast, with chants of “Rory, Rory, Rory” ringing out through rain and shine, even after a steady start of 70 and 69.
‘Absolutely incredible out there. The atmosphere has been electric all day,” McIlroy told Sky Sports.
“An absolute pleasure to play in front of my home crowd, my fans. I’ve tried my best. I try my best every week, but I’m really just trying to hang in there and stay in it.”
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29.07.2025 09:50
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